Sono passate molte ore dalla notizia del rapimento dei 4 dipendenti italiani in Libia e le informazioni continuano ad essere confuse oltre che contaminate da personali punti di vista e riflessioni di vari esponenti. Quattro soggetti che senza scorta si muovono tranquillamente in un determinato teatro come quello libico devono obbligatoriamente avere una preparazione o un addestramento che gli consenta quella libertà. Chi di voi andrebbe ad operare in un ambiente ostile senza avere un briciolo di tutela personale?
Speakers at the seminar organized by the Italian Atlantic Committee, in cooperation with "Abhath" Al Thuraya Consultancy and Researches Mediterranean Gulf Forum, at the CASD - Studies Centre for the defense of Rome, last May 7, have questioned the role that Libya It will have in the future Mediterranean scenery.
The possible analysis grid has declined on social action plans, political-military and the size in which the act will consist of the European Union.
After the customary greetings V.Adm. Rinaldo Veri, President of the Centre for High Defence Sudies, it moved to the interventions of Michael Frendo, former Foreign Minister of Malta, who calmly pointed out the problems related to immigration of Mass.
Then intervened Abdul Ilan Khatib, former UN special envoy to Libya and Jordanian Foreign Minister, with a very cautious and diplomatic speech highlighted the need to achieve greater cooperation.
Right now a standard peacekeeping mission is useless if not negative for the stabilization of Libya. The problem today is the emulation Isis and the lack of a strong government recognized by all to put the economy. Then you have to facilitate the solution of these two problems with intelligence activities. An intervention on the ground classic coalition would create chaos and lead the tribes are not aligned to counter the Europeans would witness then to suicide bombings and reprisals different. A true gift to Daesh.
The head of the European Union foreign policy Federica Mogherini is considering asking the European Union to consider sending troops into Libya to allow the formation of a national unity government, but the plan is for now received with great skepticism by individual EU governments are very concerned about the risks it entails.
It will be the next meeting of EU foreign ministers to be held in Brussels this week that can be attributed or not to Mogherini the right to develop proposals for a possible mission in Libya.
The web is bouncing this piece of news: Italian warships, included the amphibious vessel San Giorgio, left Italy and are now moving toward Libya.
Theoretically speaking, the purpose is to carry out a military exercise known as operation Mare Aperto, which has been performed since early ‘90es.
It could be argued that some kind of “shadow objective” is to simply “show the muscles” given the chaotic situation in Libya, quite a common practice as proved, for example, by NATO’s drills in the Baltic republics, by Russian exercises behind Ukrainian border and by Turkish or Greek exercises in the Aegean Sea.
European press, especially Italian Media, are giving unlimited space to any news concerning Isis. Every day newspapers, TV, credited websites, in fact devote headlines and numerous journalistic services to the threat posed by the Islamic State against Italy. The sharp increase in mainstream media attention, however, is reached when came alarming news on the situation in Libya all over the world, situation ready to explode with serious consequences in southern Europe.
Tunisia and Algeria could be the next target of Daesh’s militants. It should be considered as something more than a simple risk since what happened yesterday – the attack against Tunisian border police at Kasserine – suggests that neighbouring countries should be prepared to deal with such threat.
Daesh is not alone though. Concerns rise given the fact that some armed groups in the area have already shown their support to the black flags. Moreover, should other militias come from the Sahel region, the “frontline” would swallow entire south Algeria. In the meantime, both governments took first steps to secure the Libyan border by deploying some military forces.
Daesh advances toward Tripoli recruiting men from the tribal clans are not aligned: currently number 4,500 militants (conservative estimate). The jahidisti moving columns of cars both technical and adapted to both civilian combat trying to avoid clashes in open spaces, preferring urban warfare. This is to limit losses and whether to give the 'impression to achieve immediate success and convince the population to join the Libyan men to emulate them. Tactically aim to increase the coastal control to establish training centers and establish in areas subjected the welfare state model of the caliphate.
The Libyan Arab Spring did not bring democracy and stability as many thought it would. The power vacuum that Gaddafi left behind has not been filled up.
The current political situation in Libya is extremely complex and fragmented as there are different actors aiming at different goals using different means. Essentially is it possible to identify three main factions, each one fighting against the other two: the internationally recognised and legitimate-perceived Tobruk government, the New General National Congress (GNC) and the Shura Council of Benghazi Revolutionaries.
Tobruk government launched a military operation called Operation Dignity to defeat GNC’s militias that are currently united under a sort of “umbrella organization” called Libya Dawan, and against Shura Council’s Daesh-linked militants. At the same time, while confronting regular troops commanded by general Haftar, the GNC and the Shura Council keep fighting each other.
Daesh met Libyan tribal leaders who work on the coast and was able to reach an agreement to compact and make common cause with the intention of controlling the entire coastline. The operation is being refined ... were eliminated groups linked to al-Zawahiri. By controlling the coast count stressing Europe by sending massive illegal: in the coming days it will reach thousands. The EU will fall into the trap and will examine the possibility of targeted interventions in Libya ignoring the Iraqi Syrian front. Moreover confidential sources inform us that secret agreements are underway to strengthen Al-Zawahiri and bring it back into play. German and English are very active.
