On Monday, Triage attended a lecture that was held at Istituto per gli Studi di Politica Internazionale (ISPI). The object of the lecture was the threat posed by global jihad and its general purpose was to answer questions like “how big this threat is?”, “which countries are in danger?”, “what are the implication for Italian foreign policy and Italian defence and security?”. These questions are thoroughly answered in a report entitled “L’Italia e la minaccia jihadista. Quale politica estera?” edited by the ISPI Observatory on Terrorism.
Right now a standard peacekeeping mission is useless if not negative for the stabilization of Libya. The problem today is the emulation Isis and the lack of a strong government recognized by all to put the economy. Then you have to facilitate the solution of these two problems with intelligence activities. An intervention on the ground classic coalition would create chaos and lead the tribes are not aligned to counter the Europeans would witness then to suicide bombings and reprisals different. A true gift to Daesh.
The head of the European Union foreign policy Federica Mogherini is considering asking the European Union to consider sending troops into Libya to allow the formation of a national unity government, but the plan is for now received with great skepticism by individual EU governments are very concerned about the risks it entails.
It will be the next meeting of EU foreign ministers to be held in Brussels this week that can be attributed or not to Mogherini the right to develop proposals for a possible mission in Libya.
European press, especially Italian Media, are giving unlimited space to any news concerning Isis. Every day newspapers, TV, credited websites, in fact devote headlines and numerous journalistic services to the threat posed by the Islamic State against Italy. The sharp increase in mainstream media attention, however, is reached when came alarming news on the situation in Libya all over the world, situation ready to explode with serious consequences in southern Europe.
Tunisia and Algeria could be the next target of Daesh’s militants. It should be considered as something more than a simple risk since what happened yesterday – the attack against Tunisian border police at Kasserine – suggests that neighbouring countries should be prepared to deal with such threat.
Daesh is not alone though. Concerns rise given the fact that some armed groups in the area have already shown their support to the black flags. Moreover, should other militias come from the Sahel region, the “frontline” would swallow entire south Algeria. In the meantime, both governments took first steps to secure the Libyan border by deploying some military forces.
Daesh advances toward Tripoli recruiting men from the tribal clans are not aligned: currently number 4,500 militants (conservative estimate). The jahidisti moving columns of cars both technical and adapted to both civilian combat trying to avoid clashes in open spaces, preferring urban warfare. This is to limit losses and whether to give the 'impression to achieve immediate success and convince the population to join the Libyan men to emulate them. Tactically aim to increase the coastal control to establish training centers and establish in areas subjected the welfare state model of the caliphate.
The Libyan Arab Spring did not bring democracy and stability as many thought it would. The power vacuum that Gaddafi left behind has not been filled up.
The current political situation in Libya is extremely complex and fragmented as there are different actors aiming at different goals using different means. Essentially is it possible to identify three main factions, each one fighting against the other two: the internationally recognised and legitimate-perceived Tobruk government, the New General National Congress (GNC) and the Shura Council of Benghazi Revolutionaries.
Tobruk government launched a military operation called Operation Dignity to defeat GNC’s militias that are currently united under a sort of “umbrella organization” called Libya Dawan, and against Shura Council’s Daesh-linked militants. At the same time, while confronting regular troops commanded by general Haftar, the GNC and the Shura Council keep fighting each other.
Daesh met Libyan tribal leaders who work on the coast and was able to reach an agreement to compact and make common cause with the intention of controlling the entire coastline. The operation is being refined ... were eliminated groups linked to al-Zawahiri. By controlling the coast count stressing Europe by sending massive illegal: in the coming days it will reach thousands. The EU will fall into the trap and will examine the possibility of targeted interventions in Libya ignoring the Iraqi Syrian front. Moreover confidential sources inform us that secret agreements are underway to strengthen Al-Zawahiri and bring it back into play. German and English are very active.
Al Baghdadi in pushing terrorist actions in North Africa and with the attack of Paris is applying the tactics of contingency.
There is not an optimal strategy for Isis, jihadi leaders know clearly that it's always the scenario to make a winning strategy. When the theaters of conflict are changed to the saturation of the possible new areas, the psychological defensive ability of the opponents weaken, making useless the prevention.
