This week we have seen an agreement to resume natural gas shipments from Egypt to Lebanon through the Arab Gas Pipeline that stretches from Egypt through Jordan and Syria to Lebanon. Energy Ministers of the four countries met at an official meeting in Amman to reach the agreement, which is promising, not just to solve part of Lebanon’s critical energy shortage, but it also represents an opportunity for both Jordan and Syria. There are many questions around the likelihood of success for this project, particularly given the need for stability and security cooperation, which will also require broader cooperation and official political engagement.
Since US President Joe Biden came into the White House, there have been serious attempts to kick-start the stalled Israeli-Palestinian peace initiative. There is no doubt that with Benjamin Netanyahu no longer Prime Minister of Israel, the Americans have a much better chance at getting things moving.
In the meantime, political activism amongst three protagonists in Egypt, Jordan and the Palestinian Authority has been pushing the issue. The leaders of Egypt, Jordan and the Palestinian Authority even held a trilateral summit in Cairo to discuss ways of reviving the peace process between the Palestinians and the Israelis.
I recenti avvenimenti accaduti nel sud della Siria, in particolare nella città di Daraa, hanno causato il rallentamento della piena riapertura del confine con la Giordania, concordata di recente. L’intensificarsi del conflitto e il ritardo nell’apertura di questa importante rotta commerciale potrebbero avere impatti più ampi se non si troveranno al più presto soluzioni valide ed efficaci.
Si prevede che il governo siriano voglia consolidare la sua posizione sulla provincia meridionale, che è strategica, con un occhio a un’ulteriore normalizzazione; poiché sarà difficile riaprire completamente i confini in assenza della piena sovranità statale su questa regione. Quindi, strategicamente l’assalto a Daraa ha senso, in particolare dopo il crollo del piano di riconciliazione di Damasco per la città.
There are various signs across Arab countries of the potential for political turmoil. Potential uprisings are not much of a surprise anymore, but the current situation should raise political and security concerns across the states in the region.
More than ten years after the beginning of the Arab Spring uprisings, where underlying issues within Arab countries were bluntly revealed, there has been no real approach to manage change or offer solutions. There is a distinct lack of anticipation of what is needed and almost no proactive measures to get in front of issues. Political reform is necessary and not in the long term, but now.
For a country like Jordan, this year marks 100 years since the establishment of the country. Jordan has faced various critical moments, difficulties and challenges. There have been promising periods where change was adopted to manage developing situations. In 1989, following the April uprising, the political well was found to solve the underlying issues not just from an economic perspective, but a much wider vision based on political inclusion and improvements to the democratic process. During the last decade we have also seen some attempts to implement constitutional amendments and increase the transparency of politics in the country.
During these difficult times, countries are facing multidimensional challenges. The crisis is not limited to economic challenges but it is also a crisis of governance, reshaping the concept of role of the state. For a country like Jordan that soon will celebrate a century since its establishment, it is very important to make use of this anniversary to evaluate the achievements, mistakes, challenges, risks and opportunities. It is also critical to think progressively to overcome challenges before they become real risks for Jordan in the coming future.
Quest'anno ricorre il decimo anniversario degli eventi che hanno innescato la Primavera araba. Da quel momento, un nuovo ordine politico regionale si è sviluppato in tutta la regione araba e ha portato a un progressivo cambiamento delle priorità in Medio Oriente. Il passaggio dalla democrazia imposta alle rivoluzioni guidate dai cittadini per la democrazia e la libertà ha portato alla singolare priorità della lotta al terrorismo. Allo stesso modo, l'imposizione ideologica della democrazia e della libertà si è trasformata in pragmatismo economico. Nel frattempo, la stabilità interna è diventata la principale priorità dei responsabili politici poiché il disordine sociale potrebbe creare un terreno fertile per gravi rischi per la sicurezza, inclusi criminalità organizzata e gruppi terroristici, e per impostazione predefinita creare il potenziale per il rovesciamento dei regimi. Sebbene le difficoltà economiche siano un problema serio, i responsabili delle decisioni devono anche tenere a mente la delicata situazione regionale e le potenziali implicazioni per i loro paesi.
As new waves of COVID-19 are hitting around the world, Jordan is facing one of the toughest challenges. While there was a recent change in government, there are still yet to be any positive signs that there is a new capacity to deal with any of the critical situations the country faces by taking a new, more effective approach.
The new government should have been built based on crisis management capabilities, but instead it is a traditional bureaucratic way that is historically ineffective in dealing with the challenges that Jordan faces. This is particularly interesting given the Royal Designation Letter, which highlighted the need to focus on and face the major challenges created by COVID-19.
This week a Royal Decree was issued in Jordan to hold parliamentary elections in accordance with the provisions of law. The final stages of preparations are being made for new elections to be held on November 10, and the right atmosphere must be prepared for successful elections. Elections are a critical component of any democratic process, and preparations should ensure inclusive procedures to maximize participation amongst all social and cultural groups and avoid any risk of boycotting or campaigns that devalue the process and therefore, the outcome.
Recent developments in southern Syria demonstrate the growing threat from terrorist and criminal groups in the area and the need to pay closer attention to the evolving situation. This is a growing risk of instability right on Jordan’s borders, and increasing the security threat in its major cities. The instability is not merely a result of security threats but also the economic hardship that people are under and the apparent lack of policies or strategies that for preventive measures to manage the risk.
Potential instability on the borders is a critical risk for all countries, especially in the Middle East. This is particularly so for Jordan, where the risk has been high for many years now, and security threats on the border such as lawlessness and fighting creates fertile ground for criminality and terrorism. This kind of instability combined with economic hardship could also lead to significant increase in the number of locals that join terrorist groups.
