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14-10-2014

The new course of German foreign policy: prominence and uncertainties

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With every passing month, the evolution of the hot Ukrainian question is delivering the international political scene a really unusual Germany: the analysts do not harbour any doubts about it. For decades we have been accustomed to the image of a country that was forced by his lumbering past to limit its initiatives in the international scene to the field of the cooperation for economical development –certainly a meritorious contribution-, refusing to play a leading role in the international political-military balances. In other words, Germany had to do everything possible to try to remove all traces of his aggressive nationalism, swept away along with the famous first verse of the German national anthem, "Deutschland über alles in der Welt".

In the period that followed the craved Vereinigung, the reunification of DDR (Democratic Republic of Germany) and BDR (Federal Republic of Germany), we have also been accustomed to a gradual easing of relations with the United States, which reached their all-time low in 2003, when Germany refused to join “Operation Iraqi Freedom". Well, as mentioned in the opening, the Ukrainian crisis has led to a decisive turning point of German foreign policy, led by the very determined Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel, who has strongly supported the new political course of Kiev from the very beginning, urging Yulia Tymoschenko, just released from prison as a result of Maidan Square revolution, to "work for the unity of the country". Even more determined was then the support of the German Government to the new president of Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko, that Frau Merkel met in Kyiv on last August 23th, firmly reiterating her will to defend the territorial integrity of Ukraine. The second relevant change in German foreign policy is the strong agreement that has been established between the German Chancellor and President Obama, that was well showed by the joint warning addressed to Putin's Russia at the their meeting in Washington on August 28: «Russia will pay a price for its aggression to Ukraine». Strong words, which are well placed in the context of the revival of the Atlantic alliance due to the growing tensions with Moscow. So far, Germany seems to be doing the lion's share, having finally earned a place in the sun in the Gotha of geopolitics. But this renewed leadership is having a very high price: the endangerment of vital economic relations with Russia. A few data to realize this: according to official data of the German Government, in 2013 Germany imported goods from Russia for more than 40 billion euros, while total exports to Russia have been above 36 billion. Germany is also the second greatest buyer of Gazprom, surpassed only by China.  As predictable, the sanctions imposed on Russia have therefore heavily affected German economy, which has not surprisingly seen a worrying decline of 0.2% of GDP in the second quarter of 2014. Moreover, a survey published in August by Welt revealed the real concern of the top German managers for the economic consequences of the crisis in Ukraine, and to this was added on September 16th judgment of Mario Ohoven, the influential president of the BVMW, the association of small and medium-sized German companies, who has strongly criticized the proposal for a tightening of the sanctions against Russia. These worrisome signs must have somehow cracked, below the surface, the granite certainties of the German Government, and Angela Merkel’s slowing down on the imposition of new sanctions on Russia, which took place just after the publication of the first negative economic data, seems to confirm this impression. To all this we must add that the possible benefits arising from the entrance of Ukraine in the sphere of German economic influence - that  Central and Eastern Europe that some analysts have provocatively renamed Zollverein, from the name of the customs Union of the German states promoted by Otto von Bismarck - have been drastically reduced by the secession of Crimea, undoubtedly the richest in energy resources among Ukrainian regions. Moreover, the entry of Ukraine into the European Union, as confirmed by Poroshenko himself, could not take place before 2020. Then Germany is at a crossroads: on the one hand, it can continue to support unconditionally the Ukrainian government against Russia, knowing, however, that it is pursuing an uncertain outcome at the expense of basic economic security; on the other hand, Germany could regain a more conservative role of mediation between Atlantic Axis and Moscow, but giving up his leading role. In either case, the German executive will face the insidious unknowns.
The crisis in Ukraine, however, is not the only fact of foreign policy to attract the attention of the German government and public opinion: in every news the name Terrormiliz of Isis resonates ominously. Even in this context it should be noted a substantial change from the German traditional policy of low profile. If, on the one hand, Foreign Minister Walter Steinmeier ruled out involvement in the bombing of the German Air Force against the positions of the Isis, and, a fortiori, the commitment of ground troops on Iraqi territory, on the other hand the government has taken on August 30th a decision of historic significance - just three years after the refuse to intervene in the crisis -, approving the sending of  substantial military aids to the Kurdish fighters that are involved in the war against Al-Baghdadi’s “caliphate”: the German government has committed itself to provide  500 anti-tank missiles, 16,000 assault rifles, 10,000 grenades and 240 bazookas. Misgivings were expressed within the Große Koalition (grand coalition) itself, even by important figures such as Steinmeier and Ursula von der Leyen (CDU), Minister of Defense, who expressed the  fear of a possible use of the German weapons by Kurdish militias for the establishment of an independent state; but in his speech to the Bundestag on September 1st, the Chancellor strongly reaffirmed the absolute necessity to stop the rise of Isis, responsible for genocide and serious threat to Germany itself. Certainly the words of the Bundeskanzlerin make even greater sense in the light of German intelligence reports, which indicate that about 450 jihadists have reached the Islamic State from Germany. A fact even more disturbing when considering that a research of the Spiegel has identified among the jihadists that are fighting in Syria as many as 20 former soldiers of the Bundeswehr, the German Federal Armed Forces. Not to mention the sad history of Buran Karan, former mate of Sami Khedira and Kevin Prince Boateng in Germany’s under 17 national team, who, after having earlier left the football activity, enlisted himself in the jihadi militias and died in November 2013 on the battlefields of Syria, at the age of 26. Faced with a threat of this magnitude, which affects not only  the balance of a crucial area as the Middle East, but also the very security of Germany, the German government has decided not to stand and watch, thus overcoming the traditional reluctance to get involved, even indirectly, in war scenarios. The message is clear: in the struggle against the barbarities of Isis, Germany does not draw back.

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Francesco Massetti

Born in Perugia in 1988, he follows a scientific degree in 2007 in his hometown and in the same year he moved to Rome to study Historical Sciences at the University "La Sapienza", specializing in the study of the relationship between the sacred and power. In 2011 he graduated with a degree in medieval history on the Golden Legend of Jacopo da Varazze, followed in 2014 by the master's degree with a thesis on the Donation of Constantine, the most famous forgery of medieval history. Collaborated since 2012 with the historical-literary association "Polvere del Tempo", and in June 2014 published an article entitled Rituals and images of the papal power in the Gesta Innocentii III in the journal of European Studies Eurostudium 3w.

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