On the eastern frontline. In a previously published article, we analyzed the situation on the field: by the end of July, rebel forces were massed in an area that crossed both Lugansk and Donetsk oblasts and were “protected” by the Russian border. By the end of 2014, things changed. First of all, pro-Russia militias has taken a strip of land that runs to the Sea of Azov (a northern section of the Black Sea); moreover, they have been able to retake control over the city of Lugansk and of the neighboring areas and, finally, they started fighting against the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine on a 400 kilometer-long line that runs from the small town of Parkhomenko to the city of Novazovsk.

Situation in eastern Ukraine as of the end of July and December 2014 [source: National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine].

Ceasefires & Peace Talks. On September 5 2014, Ukrainian government and rebel forces sat down in Minsk and signed a truce after more than six months of war. As it too often happens though, salvos may have been premature: its intensity decreased but the fighting has never stopped. In particular, combats have been going on in Donetsk and the two sides are furiously struggling to gain control over its airport. In order to bring this war to an end and aiming to avoid a new escalation, rumors of imminent peace talks grown. On December 5, Ukrainian President Poroshenko tried to make some steps forward declaring that the army would hold its fire on December 9 and asked the rebels to do the same under the promise of an upcoming retreat of the heavy artillery from the frontline[3]).

Positive signals and skepticism. Although the September 5 and December 9 truces are positive elements, given the fact that there are still many unresolved question marks, skepticism is justified. For example, the degree of Russian involvement remains unclear: Moscow has always denied any form of direct involvement but it has been accused of interferences since the beginning of the crisis[4]. Moreover, the international status of Crimea needs to be settled: while Russia recognized the referendum that de facto made the region independent from Kiev, Ukrainian Prime Minister Yatsenyuk declared that «nobody has recognized the annexation of Crimea, Crimea was, is and remains the Ukrainian territory»[5]. Last but not least, government moves and intentions are foggy at times: for example, President Poroshenko proposed a ceasefire on December 5 but he also encouraged its troop not to give up the fight for Donetsk’s airport[6].

Time is running out. Generally speaking, it’s clear that there is no more time that can be wasted without facing the risks of a new escalation. Ceasefires have squeaked by so far but it would take nothing to bring eastern Ukraine in another phase of war.