Week 1: February 15 – February 21. As of February 18, there were almost no signs of Minsk agreement’s first three points being respected: fierce fighting was reported, heavy weapons were not withdrawn from the frontline and OSCE’s inspectors’ access and freedom of movement were restricted.

Week 2: February 22 – February 28. As of February 24, despite some light improvement, the overall situation did not change: again, exchanges of fire were reported, there was confusion over weapons withdrawal and OSCE monitoring mission was restricted.

Week 3: March 1 – March 7. Fighting of variable intensity took place almost exclusively in Donetsk region: although it seemed that the number of violations had lowered if compared those occurred in previous two weeks, the overall situation remained unstable.

Week 4: March 8 – March 14. The first three point of the agreement are far from being fully respected and no particular development has been noted. The parties are more compliant with these measures in Lugansk region than in Donetsk.

Ceasefire violations have been registered entirely in Donetsk Oblast, especially in Donetsk airport and in the nearby areas where, according to the OSCE’s Special Monitoring Mission, 39 out 60 episodes occurred. Ceasefire violations have been caused by small weapons, heavy machine guns, grenade launchers, tanks, anti-tank missiles, mortars and artillery.  

There has been little developments regarding Measure 2 implementation as well. Although the parties provided the SMM with proofs of compliance, violations have not disappeared: in particular, they regarded the use of heavy weapons such as 120mm mortars and artillery.

Finally, OSCE inspectors’ freedom of access and movement still suffers from restriction: security guarantees are not always provided, escorts are not provided for all planned patrols or are delayed, access to buildings or storage sites is not always allowed and SMM is not always free to follow military convoys. 

Although it should be recognised that things have (slowly) changed since Minsk II and the very beginning of 2015, OSCE inspectors clearly stated that “the security situation in Donbas is [still] fluid and unpredictable”.

Notes on data collection and data reading. All collected data showed in Picture 1 and Picture 2 display the number of cases in which a violation of Minsk agreement occurred. Data are extrapolated from OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine’s reports[1] and, please, consider them as purely indicative.