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17-09-2015

yria: the war against Daesh between airstrikes and diplomatic efforts

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Source: Newsweek.com Source: Newsweek.com

Earlier this month, French President François Hollade asked to his Defence Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian to launch reconnaissance flights over Syria in case of new potential raids against the Islamic State. On September 16, Le Drian himself declared that France may strike in the "coming weeks […] once we have well identified targets" (source: Bloomberg). In this way, Paris is going to expand its action from Iraq to Syria.

In 2014, the United Kingdom decided to join the anti-Daesh coalition by striking in Iraq only. On last 21 August, a Royal Air Force’s drone hit Islamic State’s positions in Syria and killed two British jihadist in what was a "perfectly legal act of self-defence" by Defence Secretary Michael Fallon (source: BBC). London may follow the French decision and start striking in Syria as well: according toForeign Secretary Philip Hammond, UK "would see the authority to attack ISIL targets more widely in Syria as being a part of the campaign against ISIL, which at the moment is confined to Iraq" (source: WSJ).

Germany is trying to push toward a diplomatic solution instead. Defence Minister Ursula von der Leyen, after stressing the fact that the Country is "heavily committed to the fight against Islamic State", hopes to bring the fighting parties (Assan and the armed opposition Ed.) "at one table to work on a solution together" (source: DW). Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier expressed his concerns regarding French and British military plans as he fears they would "destroy the chance of a negotiated solutions that might have been possible for the first time" (source: WSJ).

The Syrian scenario is a very complex one, where the anti-Assad front is fragmented into many armed factions often fighting one another. Syria became a “land of opportunity” to Daesh and to other radical armed groups. Anti-Daesh coalition’s airstrikes won’t be completely effective without a simultaneous military operation on land. However, western countries will very unlikely decide to launch a “boots on the ground” campaign. Therefore, deploying the Syrian army has to be considered as the best option available at the moment, and German diplomatic efforts to create a solid anti-Daesh alliance serve to this purpose. Moreover, Assad’s removal won’t make Syria a free and democratic country; on the contrary, it would create a serious power vacuum which would only help Daesh and others armed groups in strengthening their forces and consolidating their position in Syrian territory.

Alessandro Mazzilli

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