In seguito al più recente attacco israeliano, sia l’Iran che Israele sembrano formulare strategie di sicurezza globali volte a salvaguardare i propri confini e a garantire agli alleati internazionali la protezione dei civili in vista della battaglia di Rafah. Dal punto di vista israeliano, le rafforzate misure di sicurezza adottate da Israele in Libano e Siria sottolineano l’importanza fondamentale di mantenere la loro sicurezza e stabilità. La proposta di istituire una zona cuscinetto di sicurezza per mitigare le potenziali minacce provenienti dai confini meridionali del Libano riflette le considerazioni strategiche che guidano il processo decisionale israeliano.

This week we have seen an agreement to resume natural gas shipments from Egypt to Lebanon through the Arab Gas Pipeline that stretches from Egypt through Jordan and Syria to Lebanon. Energy Ministers of the four countries met at an official meeting in Amman to reach the agreement, which is promising, not just to solve part of Lebanon’s critical energy shortage, but it also represents an opportunity for both Jordan and Syria. There are many questions around the likelihood of success for this project, particularly given the need for stability and security cooperation, which will also require broader cooperation and official political engagement.

È passato un anno dall’esplosione che ha distrutto buona parte del porto della città di Beirut, e che ha messo in ginocchio l’economia del già fragile paese medio orientale. Vediamo ora quale è la situazione nel paese dei Cedri, nell’anniversario di questo tragico evento.

Immediatamente dopo l’esplosione sembrava che il Libano fosse tornato ad essere una delle priorità nelle agende delle cancellerie e dei ministeri di mezzo mondo. Con la visita di Macron nella capitale libanese si era sentita tangibile la possibilità di una rapida ripresa. Non solo dal punto di vista economico ma anche sociale, politica e istituzionale.

Oggi 16 gennaio sono 30 anni dallo scoppio della prima guerra del Golfo, in cui la coalizione internazionale attaccò l’Iraq di Saddam Hussein. L’inizio della guerra e la sua rapida evoluzione non diedero la percezione all’uomo comune di quali sarebbero state le sue conseguenze, nel breve, medio e lungo periodo. Questa guerra in realtà avrebbe cambiato per sempre il volto della regione mediorientale inaugurando una stagione di instabilità che ancora oggi persiste.

The incident at the Port of Beirut this week cannot be considered as just another disaster, like many others that occur daily in the Middle East. Not only because of the loss of life, damage and economic impact, but also for the other consequences that the incident will lead to. 

The accident occurred at a very particular and delicate point in the history of Lebanon. The country is in the grips of an economic crisis, as a consequence of a policy of isolation and sanctions imposed by international actors, primarily the United States, targeted at draining the financial resources of Hezbollah. Prior to the explosions at the Port this week, the most important problem facing the Lebanese government was the economic crisis and its potential for social and political instability. The situation on the ground in Lebanon over the last has been dominated by growing discontent amongst the population as a result of an ongoing lack of essential services and development opportunities, along with an increasing assumption of corruption amongst the political class. 

The challenges in the Middle East continue as the region appears to be facing a new wave of destabilisation from Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and the West Bank.

The Lebanese political crisis appears to be deepening as the economic crisis grips tighter. This is leading to the reemergence of questions about the concept of the finely balanced political equilibrium of the state and whether it remains fit for purpose in the new regional and global landscape. There are suggestions that there is a need for new political actors and potential structure to meet the challenges presented by the post-COVID environment. 

Many questions could be easily raised regarding the incident in Paris. Yet, the major questions are related to the consequences of this incident that comes in a very critical moment of shaping a new strategy of combatting terrorism. It is possible to consider Paris attacks as a smaller version of New york Sept 11th . However, Paris incident can not be compared to New york, but it is enough to think of launching a second version of Fighting terrorism where France will have a leading role. This might lead us to expect some of possible consequences or French reactions to the brutal attacks.

The words of King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia is our cue to try to understand the issues that animate the sectarian nature of politics, but not only, Middle Eastern.

King Abdullah , referring to Iran , according to data from WikiLeaks , expressed himself in these terms: " God prevent us from falling victim to their evil" and added that Washington should " cut off the head of the snake".

The countries of the Gulf Sunni Muslims , under the leadership of the regional power Saudi Arabia, have supported the Syrian rebels with money and weapons in the fight to overthrow Bashar al -Assad ally Iran. Hezbollah , established in 1980 to fight the Israeli occupation forces in southern Lebanon , sent their fighters to fight alongside the army in the civil war in Syria.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, welcomed with great satisfaction the decision of the EU to include the military wing of Hezbollah on the blacklist of terrorist organizations, adding, inter alia, that Israel does not distinguish between the army and the political faction of ' organization being two sides of the same coin.

Israeli Prime Minister thanked the leaders of the 28 EU Member States and expressed the hope that the decision would lead to "concrete steps against the organization."