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12-05-2013

PAKISTAN, BLOODY ELECTIONS: SHARIF HAS WON

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ISLAMABAD - During national elections, on May 11, the coastal city of Karachi (Sindh province) was hit by a brutal terrorist attack in the Quaidabad's district. Pakistani sources report that a large quantity of explosive has been placed on an auto-rickshaw thus causing the powerful explosion that caused 10 deaths and more than 30 injured. Target of the attack was the offices of the Awami National Party (ANP) and the party's candidate Amanullah Mehsud, but he remained unharmed. 

Elezioni PakistanThe group called Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) for months is carrying out a violent campaign of terror in the country, particularly in Karachi, primarily affecting government and party offices. Recently, other attacks have occurred in the metropolitan area of Karachi in the areas of Korangi Town, Orangi Town, Lyari, Saddar Town and Mehmoodabad. 

A long series of attacks has undermined the domestic security environment of the last two months, close to the government elections. On April 2, in the city of Peshawar (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province) about 40 militants attacked the local power grid pursuing a heavy armed conflict that caused the death of 8 people. The attackers made use of at least 7 rockets and detonated about 13 IED's. Were not previously recorded large-scale attacks against energy infrastructure. On April 16, a suicide attack against a leader of the Awami National Party (ANP) has caused 16 deaths in Peshawar. On April 28, the city was hit by another explosion that led to the death of 3 people and wounding 13, the same day in the city of Kohat explosion killed 5 people and injured 23.

Also the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam party was hit by a bomb attack on May 6 in Kurram agency (Federally Administered Tribal Areas), the explosion caused 15 deaths and more than 70 injured.

On May 7, 12 people have died in the Doaba Hangu District (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa), with the aim of hitting the provincial nominee of the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam party. During a rally of the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) in the Maidan area an IED killed 6 people and injured about 20 others.

Elections

Elezioni in Pakistan

The former premier Nawaz Sharif has publicly claimed victory in the election in which the people of Pakistan had been called to vote for the members who sit in the National Assembly for the next five years. Sharif, also called "the Lion of Punjab" has already twice served as Prime Minister from 1990 to 1993 and then from 1997 to 1999, only to be deposed by the military coup of Musharraf.

In the 90s Sharif alternates with the government of the country with Benazir Bhutto and in 2000 moved to Saudi Arabia, where he remained until 2007. In 2008, his right-wing party, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), gets a great result in the voting of February for the election of the National Assembly, finishing second only to the Pakistan People's Party (PPP).

Shahbaz Sharif, Nawaz Sharif's brother, is the Chief Minister of the region of Punjab, the most populous province and with greater influence on national policies dynamics.

Sharif beat Imran Khan, founder and leader of Pakistan Tehrik-e Insaf (PTI - Movement for Justice), who admitted defeat. Imran's party, a former player of cricket, has gained considerable popularity since the end of 2011, serving the people of Pakistan as the most credible alternative to the two major parties, the PPP and the PML-N, which until then alternated in power in Pakistan .

Imran does not seem to have convinced public opinion on issues such as the cooperation of the Pakistani government with the White House, demagogic addressing the question of relations between the U.S. and Pakistan. Also, could had a negatively impact the lack of political experience of Imran and the populist character of the PTI.

The turnout (60%) was the highest since 1977, an interesting fact when taking into account the climate of violence present in the country (there are about 40 dead on Saturday) and the fact that in the region of Waziristan women, about 11,000 eligible voters, were forced to give up to go to the polls by the Taliban, which still exert considerable influence in the area.

The major political parties in Pakistan are:

Pakistan People's Party (PPP)

Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N)

Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q)

Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI)

Awami National Party (ANP)

Jamiat-e Ulema-e Islam-Fazal (JUI-F).

Jamaat-e Islami (JI)

Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM)

Indipendent parties

Upcoming

The new government will have to deal with highly complex issues, such as relations with Afghanistan and the USA, having on several occasions expressed concern for the U.S. counter-terrorism campaign. The previous governments Sharif were characterized by an evident institutional instability, widespread corruption in many fields and many policies at issue. Sharif will now try to lead a policy to encourage private initiative and will issue rules of laissez-faire, will also maintain high attention to the Pakistan's nuclear weapons program.

The security environment in Pakistan remains highly risky, the deterioration of the dynamics related to it will favor an increase of incidents of terrorism. The Pakistani security forces do not seem to stem the operation of extremist groups such as the Haqqani network and al-Qaeda. The region of South Waziristan will continue to represent an operational area for many militants.

Will not end attacks by IED's, PBIED's, VBIED's and armed assaults in the medium-term. The TTP is showing no willingness to negotiation, which suggests that an agreement is highly unlikely in the short term. Persist clashes between Sunni groups like the Sipah-e-Sahaba or the Laskar-e-Jhangvi and the Shia group Tehrik-e-Jafria.

Despite the attacks in Pakistan does not appear to involve foreign personnel, terrorism continues to pose a major threat to the country, especially in the financial capital Karachi. Studies show that the province of Baluchistan, south-west to the border with Afghanistan and Iran, is the region with the highest mortality rates for Pakistani journalists and reporters.

Source images: huffpost.com

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Claudio D'Angelo

Degree in Investigation and Security Sciences cum laude, University of Perugia.

Enrolled in the Master's Degree in Social Research for Internal and External Security - Safety and Security Manager. Intelligence analyst specialized in risk analysis, identification of possible threats and vulnerabilities of industrial sites, critical infrastructures and strategic objectives.

Expert in the management of emergency scenarios, procedures for crisis situations and  protection and safety of personnel working in areas of crises, with particular expertise in Middle East isseues.

Editor of the monthly magazine on line "Convincere", he conducts researches on the spread of jihadist groups in Middle East and North Africa, on the application of the complex systems theory to society and Network Analysis in the analysis process of intelligence.

 

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Eversione e Terrorismo

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