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05-06-2015

Ukrainian crisis update

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“Renewed fighting in Ukraine, heavy weapons deployed”, this is what many newspapers are reporting. This is not entirely true because fighting never completely stopped and heavy weapons never went completely silent. 

It is true, though, that concerns are rising again due to the fact that fighting are now reported in locations that have been relatively calm. In many occasions Triage pointed out that fighting have been occurring mainly in and around Donetsk and its airport (north/north-west of the city centre) as well as in and around Shyrokyne. In the last 24/48 hours, the confrontation between Ukrainian Armed Forces and the Donetsk People Republic (DPR) heavily involved the government-controlled town of Marinka (about 20km west/south-west of Donetsk city centre). Not only did the SMM (Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine) report heavy fighting, but also reported the fact that massive forces have been gathering in the area (including T-72 and T-64 tanks, 100 and 122mm artillery pieces, and Grad multiple rocket launchers). Efforts to cool the situation down consisted with the proclamation of a local ceasefire.

In the last week, sporadic fighting occurred in other locations in both Donetsk and Lugansk Oblasts, such as Yenakiev, Kapitanove, Aidar, Zolote, Shchastia, Luhanska, Lysychansk and Trokhizbenka. Regarding the situation in and around Shyrokyne, OSCE’s inspectors have not been able to reach the city due to security concerns.

Each side is blaming the other for what is happening in Marinka. Eduard Basurin, DPR’s spokesperson, accused Kiev of having started a «provocative military offensive»; Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk stated that «Russia once again violated Minsk agreement by ordering terrorist to launch a new military operation». The same opinion was expressed by Washington: according to US Department of State’s spokeswoman Marie Harf, «Russia in directly responsible for the attacks». On the opposite front, Putin’s spokesperson Dmitrij Peskov said that «Moscow is extremely worried about Ukrainian army’s actions» which he considers to be deliberatively provocative.

In the meanwhile, the number of people who fears a Russian invasion is increasing; Triage, however, has already stated that this is a very farfetched eventuality

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Alessandro Mazzilli

Degree in International Relations at the Faculty of Political Science of the University of Turin.

Expert in Foreign Policy of Defence and Security and the relationships Euro - Atlantic.

Geopolitical analyst.

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