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12-03-2015

The long Libyan crisis

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The long Libyan crisis CHRIS HONDROS / GETTY IMAGES FILE PHOTO

This morning an explosion struck a police station in the center of Tripoli, in the district of Zawiya to Dahani; the attack was immediately claimed on Twitter by ISIS. The police station was occupied by the local Islamic militia led by Abdel Rauf Karah. 

The explosion took place not far from the Libyan Foreign Ministry, causing considerable damage to buildings and cars located in the vicinity. While in Libya do not stop the violence, in Rabat negotiations to reconcile the various warring parties and restore an environment of stability and security in the country continue. Several politicians Libyans are discussing  in order to ensure a return to peace and democracy, however, is rather worrying that fundamental for the future of Libya as the coalition of Islamist militias Alba Libya and the heads of government Tobruk, officially recognized by the international community, are not participating in the Rabat talks.

In the talks is taking part also the UN envoy Bernardino Leon, just arrived at Skheirat, not far from the Moroccan capital. Local sources report, however, the intention of Leon to carry on separate talks between the different parties in the Libyan struggle, sign of a persistent and difficult tense atmosphere. Despite the opening of negotiations, due also to the advanced of Isis, and the cautious optimism expressed by the international community for the success of the talks, it's extremely unlikely that we can reach an agreement that can guarantee political stability and security in Libya if the main warring parties remain out of trading. In these conditions, the chances of a solution to the Libyan crisis in the medium term are still low.

Meantime emerges the figure of Khalifa Haftar, appointed commander of the regular armed forces of the Libyan government headed by Abdullah al-Thinni. The 72-year old General  is driving Libyan forces against the positions of the Isis, gathering consensus of the troops and the local population. Haftar, highly experienced soldier, has returned in the country in 2011, where he rallied the military loyal to him and has commanded Operation Dignity, aimed at restoring peace and democracy in Libya. Haftar has specifically requested the Italian government and the international community, to support his troops, now in difficulty, in the fight against the Islamic State. He also referred to the opportunities that Libya could offer - to those who will prove to be close to the government of Tobruk - for the exploitation of the many natural resources in the area. The figure of Haftar, although much discussed because of his flexible loyalty , is emerging arousing internal concerns (Tripoli accuses Tobruk want to establish a military junta) and regional, it remains to wonder whether the developments of the conflict against the Islamic State in Cyrenaica could cause the rise of Haftar as a political leader as well as military.

 

Claudio D'Angelo

Degree in Investigation and Security Sciences cum laude, University of Perugia.

Enrolled in the Master's Degree in Social Research for Internal and External Security - Safety and Security Manager. Intelligence analyst specialized in risk analysis, identification of possible threats and vulnerabilities of industrial sites, critical infrastructures and strategic objectives.

Expert in the management of emergency scenarios, procedures for crisis situations and  protection and safety of personnel working in areas of crises, with particular expertise in Middle East isseues.

Editor of the monthly magazine on line "Convincere", he conducts researches on the spread of jihadist groups in Middle East and North Africa, on the application of the complex systems theory to society and Network Analysis in the analysis process of intelligence.

 

Geoeconomia

Eversione e Terrorismo

Geopolitica

Risorse Energetiche

Cyber Warfare

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