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21-07-2013

Kerry e il dormiente processo di pace in Medio Oriente

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John Kerry’s visit to the Middle East provides several signals on political issues in the region. In particular, it brings back into focus the goal of kick starting the immobile regional peace process.  

The first signal is the American decision for Amman to be the meeting place with the Palestinians. The message is to both Palestinians and Jordanians foreshadowing Jordan’s role in the upcoming settlement process, which, if all goes well, will be looking much healthier in the coming weeks.

The second signal was the meeting with Arab league representatives in Amman. Admittedly, this may be a result of the desire to avoid visiting Cairo under the current conditions. Alternatively, meeting with the Arab league delegation in Amman to discuss the activation of the Palestinian- Israeli peace process negotiations sends a clear message.  

The Americans are introducing a wider Arab dimension to the upcoming negotiations. This is to assure the Israelis that the national security of Israel will have an Arab guarantee, that could lead to a normalization process with Israel after the negotiations are settled.   

Many are questioning the motives behind America’s rapid efforts to activate the peace process talks. It seems clear that the American administration wishes to prepare the path to a regional settlement before starting the negotiations of Geneva II. Additionally, it appears as though the Americans view the disputes across the region as a single package and assume that a Syrian political settlement will lead to a regional one.  

Although some expect that this will be done in parallel with attempts to weaken the current Syrian regime through extraordinary attacks across the Syrian territories. With Geneva II coming up in September, the US would logically be seeking two major goals. 

Firstly, aggravating within Syria through unusual operations that aim to change the balance of power across the Syrian territories, in a way that improves America’s negotiation position ahead of the Russians. This means we could expect untraditional scenarios and attacks within Syria. 

Secondly, the exploitation of the tight time limit that anticipates the coming fall of the regime in Syria and the proposed Geneva II summit. Taking advantage of this period to prepare the launch of the regional settlement process, with a special focus on the call for normalization between Arabs and Israelis. 

So, America’s current strategy is likely to produce results on the ground across the region soon, from political to security consequences. The implication being that the coming few weeks could be full of surprises everywhere.

© Riproduzione Riservata

Amer Al Sabaileh

International Public Relation, Goverment Sector, Business and Human Develpoment, Strategic Analysis.

Member of the teaching staff department of the European languages and Studies University of Jordan – Amman.

Doctorate, Italian Studies University of Pisa “ Arabic and Islamic influence on the other’ s life concepts in the Mediterranean area in the medieval age.

Peace Building and Reconciliation University of Coventry, UK

Master’s degree, Education to peace , International Co – operation, Human Rights and the Politics of the European Union.

Bachelor’s degree-higher diploma, Italian and English literature-Douple Major.

Website: amersabaileh.blogspot.com
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