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04-02-2016

With or without Syrian opposition

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Despite the attempts of some Syrian groups to block the Geneva III meeting, the Russians’ and Americans’ wish to hold the talks seems to have won.

The Geneva meeting should logically set the framework for a future political solution, basically because it happens after a UN resolution regarding Syria was issued and the Syrian government forces, backed up by Russia, attained tangible military achievements. Both Moscow and Washington have made concessions in order to make Geneva III successful. This strong American and Russian involvement is bound to deprive most of the regional countries involved in Syria of the power to affect much of the Syrian opposition. If Russians played a major role in backing up the Syrian government forces militarily, Washington played a major role in making the foreign Syrian opposition participate in Geneva III. This indicates the desire to define what makes legitimate Syrian opposition. The talks should be the moment Syrian groups grasp to finally reach some agreement on how to put an end to the crisis; they should also signal to regional countries that they should stop working to block reaching a solution to Syria.  Geneva III might not bring actual solutions to the Syrian crisis, but represents the first concrete step towards building a unified opposition body that can survive within the Syrian state. The strategy adopted by Russians and Americans is to impose a solution on all parties; if they succeed, the regional influences in Syria will be less effectual. At the same time, the military progress registered by the Syrian troops on the ground will no doubt have an impact on Syria’s neighbourhood. Jordan, for example, should be prepared to deal with the consequences of the military operations in the south of Syria. The Jordanian army sent several messages recently about its firm position regarding any attempt to approach the country’s border. At the same time, Jordan needs to think of a strategy to face any attempts by huge masses to approach its border or to have terrorists settled near the border. This might require more coordination with the protagonists in Syria. So far, Russia is the protagonist, but Jordan might soon be required to open a direct channel with Damascus. 

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Amer Al Sabaileh

International Public Relation, Goverment Sector, Business and Human Develpoment, Strategic Analysis.

Member of the teaching staff department of the European languages and Studies University of Jordan – Amman.

Doctorate, Italian Studies University of Pisa “ Arabic and Islamic influence on the other’ s life concepts in the Mediterranean area in the medieval age.

Peace Building and Reconciliation University of Coventry, UK

Master’s degree, Education to peace , International Co – operation, Human Rights and the Politics of the European Union.

Bachelor’s degree-higher diploma, Italian and English literature-Douple Major.

Website: amersabaileh.blogspot.com
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