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19-01-2015

Will France intervene in Yemen?

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Many questions could be easily raised regarding the incident in Paris. Yet, the major questions are related to the consequences of this incident that comes in a very critical moment of shaping a new strategy of combatting terrorism. It is possible to consider Paris attacks as a smaller version of New york Sept 11th . However, Paris incident can not be compared to New york, but it is enough to think of launching a second version of Fighting terrorism where France will have a leading role. This might lead us to expect some of possible consequences or French reactions to the brutal attacks.

The recent information that links Paris attacks to Al Qaeda in Yemen indicate a possible coming change in the approach France id dealing with the whole issue of fighting terrorism in the region. Here, it might be possible to link the news news about deploying the nuke aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle to the Gulf and the Indian Ocean to a new French role in fighting terrorism, direct interventions beyond Syria and Iraq, that might also be conducted individually far form the coalition, like the French approach in Africa.

If we assume that the coming phase might witness confrontations with terrorism far from Iraq, then Yemen might be the candidate place to have such confrontations between France and Al Qaeda. However, any questions should be raised regarding the real capacity of France to conduct individual strikes in Yemen or even pushing the coalition to do so. These possibilities could certainly increase with the increasing concerns regarding the situation in Yemen for a major French ally like Saudi Arabia. Still, many factors might lead to an irrepressible explosion in Yemen in the case of such interventions. Most importantly, the complexity of the Yemeni scene especially the map of power where the Houthi movement Ansar Allah is in its central would expand and transform the Yemeni scene to a place where regional and international powers are openly combatting.

Saudi Arabia might find in France today the only actor that might play a significant role in changing the map of power in Yemen. Specially, that the hesitant Obama administration doesn’t represent an effective ally for the Saudis, therefore Saudis would search for another key ally capable to move within the Saudi circle of interests. Therefore, it is important to highlight the progress of the military commercial ties between France and KSA, such as the recent three billion French weapons deal that Saudi Arabia will donate to the Lebanese Army.

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Amer Al Sabaileh

International Public Relation, Goverment Sector, Business and Human Develpoment, Strategic Analysis.

Member of the teaching staff department of the European languages and Studies University of Jordan – Amman.

Doctorate, Italian Studies University of Pisa “ Arabic and Islamic influence on the other’ s life concepts in the Mediterranean area in the medieval age.

Peace Building and Reconciliation University of Coventry, UK

Master’s degree, Education to peace , International Co – operation, Human Rights and the Politics of the European Union.

Bachelor’s degree-higher diploma, Italian and English literature-Douple Major.

Website: amersabaileh.blogspot.com
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